SAP
SAP SE · NYSE · DCF Model
Base year FY2025A · Revenue €36.8B · 1.21B diluted shares · Net cash €3.38B · Price ref €175
Owner earnings = (Non-IFRS margin − 3.0% SBC) × (1 − 28.0% tax) · 1.5%/yr share reduction · WACC 10.0% · Terminal g 3.5%
Scenario
WACC: 10.0%
7%14%
Terminal growth: 3.5%
1.5%5%
View
Intrinsic Value / Share
€179
vs €175 · +2.1% implied
Enterprise Value
€182.5B
PV FCFs €74.0B · PV TV €108.4B
TV / EV
59.4%
Terminal value weight
2035E Revenue
€84.6B
2.3× 2025 base
2035E FCF Margin
20.9%
Post-tax owner earnings
2035E Shares
1.0B
−14.0% vs today
2026–2035 Explicit Forecast — Base Case
| Year | Revenue | Rev Δ | Non-IFRS Margin | Owner-Earnings Margin | FCF Margin | FCF | PV of FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | €40.5B | 10.0% | 29.0% | 26.0% | 18.7% | €7.6B | €6.9B |
| 2027 | €44.9B | 11.0% | 30.0% | 27.0% | 19.4% | €8.7B | €7.2B |
| 2028 | €50.3B | 12.0% | 31.0% | 28.0% | 20.2% | €10.1B | €7.6B |
| 2029 | €55.9B | 11.0% | 31.6% | 28.6% | 20.6% | €11.5B | €7.9B |
| 2030 ★ | €61.4B | 10.0% | 32.0% | 29.0% | 20.9% | €12.8B | €8.0B |
| 2031 | €65.7B | 7.0% | 32.0% | 29.0% | 20.9% | €13.7B | €7.7B |
| 2032 | €70.4B | 7.0% | 32.0% | 29.0% | 20.9% | €14.7B | €7.5B |
| 2033 | €75.3B | 7.0% | 32.0% | 29.0% | 20.9% | €15.7B | €7.3B |
| 2034 | €79.8B | 6.0% | 32.0% | 29.0% | 20.9% | €16.7B | €7.1B |
| 2035 | €84.6B | 6.0% | 32.0% | 29.0% | 20.9% | €17.7B | €6.8B |
| Terminal value · g=3.5% · WACC=10.0% · 15.9× Gordon multiple | €108.4B | ||||||
| Enterprise Value | €182.5B | ||||||
EV → Per-Share Value Bridge
Enterprise Value€182.5B
(+) Net cash (FY2025A)€3.4B
Equity Value€185.8B
÷ Shares (post-buyback)1.0B
Intrinsic Value / Share€179
Current price reference€175
Implied upside / (downside)+2.1%
2026–2030: Phase 1 growth
2031–2035: Phase 2 (terminal approach)
★ = mid-period milestone yearFor informational and educational purposes only · Not investment advice · All figures in EUR · Owner earnings = (Non-IFRS op. margin − 3.0% SBC) × (1 − 28.0% tax) ·1.5%/yr share reduction · Updated March 2026